Scotland’s independence movement represents one of the most significant constitutional questions in modern British politics. It is a political campaign advocating for Scotland to become a sovereign state, separate from the United Kingdom, restoring the independence Scotland held before the Union of 1707.
The movement operates through multiple interconnected channels: elected representatives in Holyrood, civic organizations across Scotland, grassroots community groups, and coordinated campaigns designed to build public support for independence. Understanding how this movement works matters because it shapes the future of the United Kingdom and addresses fundamental questions about self-determination and democratic governance.
In this guide, I will explain exactly how Scotland’s independence movement functions today. We will examine the key political parties, the legal framework that governs the process, the civic organizations driving the campaign forward, and the practical pathways that could lead to an independent Scotland. By the end, you will understand not just what the movement wants, but precisely how it operates and how citizens can participate.
Table of Contents
What Is Scotland’s Independence Movement?
Scotland’s independence movement is a broad political campaign advocating for Scotland to become a sovereign nation, independent from the United Kingdom. The movement seeks to restore Scotland’s status as an independent state, allowing the Scottish people full control over their own affairs through their own democratic institutions.
At its core, the movement argues that decisions about Scotland should be made by the people who live in Scotland. This principle of self-determination drives every aspect of the campaign. The movement operates through a complex ecosystem of political parties, civic organizations, grassroots groups, and individual activists all working toward the same ultimate goal: securing a democratic mandate for independence and negotiating Scotland’s transition to full sovereignty.
The Movement’s Core Objectives
The independence movement pursues several interconnected objectives. First, it seeks to establish Scottish sovereignty, meaning Scotland would become a fully independent nation-state with its own government, institutions, and international representation. Second, it aims to secure Scotland’s place in the European Union, reversing the Brexit decision that removed the UK from EU membership despite Scotland voting to remain.
Third, the movement emphasizes creating a fairer, more equal society in an independent Scotland. Proponents argue that independence would allow Scotland to build an economy and social system aligned with Scottish values rather than Westminster priorities. This includes building what campaigners call a “wellbeing economy” that prioritizes quality of life alongside economic growth.
How the Movement Organizes Itself
The independence movement operates through a multi-layered organizational structure. Political parties, particularly the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Scottish Greens, provide the parliamentary and electoral backbone of the movement. These parties contest elections, propose legislation, and attempt to secure the democratic mandate necessary for independence.
Beyond political parties, civic organizations play a crucial role. Groups like Believe in Scotland coordinate campaigns, produce research, and mobilize supporters. The Scottish Independence Congress brings together various organizations to develop strategy and build consensus. Local Yes groups operate in communities across Scotland, organizing events, distributing materials, and engaging with undecided voters.
This structure creates a distributed movement where power and responsibility are shared. While the SNP leads the parliamentary strategy, the civic movement maintains grassroots energy and ensures the campaign continues between election cycles. This separation between party politics and civic campaigning has proven essential for keeping the movement alive over decades.
Historical Context: From the Union to 2026
Understanding how Scotland’s independence movement works today requires understanding where it came from. The modern movement has deep historical roots stretching back centuries, though its current form emerged primarily in the latter half of the twentieth century.
The Union and Early Nationalism
Scotland entered into a political union with England in 1707, creating the United Kingdom of Great Britain. For centuries afterward, Scottish nationalism remained relatively marginal. The modern independence movement truly began taking shape in the 1960s and 1970s, when the discovery of North Sea oil raised questions about Scottish control over its own resources.
The Scottish National Party experienced significant growth during this period, winning its first parliamentary seats and gradually building support for constitutional change. The movement argued that Scotland’s economic interests were not being served by Westminster governance, particularly regarding oil revenues.
The Devolution Era Begins
The movement achieved a major milestone in 1997 when Scotland voted in favor of creating a Scottish Parliament with devolved powers. The Scotland Act 1998 established Holyrood as a permanent part of the UK constitutional settlement, giving Scotland control over education, health, local government, and other domestic matters while reserved matters like defense and foreign policy remained with Westminster.
Devolution transformed the independence movement. Rather than campaigning for a Scottish Parliament, the SNP and other independence supporters could now govern within that Parliament while continuing to argue for full independence. The Scottish Parliament provided a platform and infrastructure that strengthened the movement considerably.
The 2014 Referendum: The Movement’s Defining Moment
The modern independence movement crystallized around the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Following the SNP’s majority victory in the 2011 Holyrood elections, the UK government agreed to a legally binding referendum through the Edinburgh Agreement. On September 18, 2014, Scots voted by 55% to 45% to remain part of the United Kingdom.
Despite the defeat, the referendum fundamentally changed Scottish politics. Voter registration reached record levels. The 16- and 17-year-old voting franchise proved successful and was later adopted for other Scottish elections. Most importantly, the Yes campaign’s grassroots energy transformed into a permanent civic movement that continues operating today.
Brexit and the Movement’s Revival
The 2016 Brexit referendum dramatically altered the independence landscape. Scotland voted by 62% to remain in the European Union, while England and Wales voted to leave. This created what independence supporters call a “material change in circumstances” that justifies another independence referendum.
The movement revived with new energy. The 2021 Holyrood elections saw pro-independence parties win a majority of seats, strengthening their democratic mandate. However, the UK government has consistently refused to grant a Section 30 order for another referendum, leading the movement to explore alternative pathways to independence.
The Key Players: Political Parties and Civic Organizations
Scotland’s independence movement involves diverse actors with different roles, strategies, and priorities. Understanding who these players are and how they interact is essential for understanding how the movement works.
Pro-Independence Political Parties
The Scottish National Party (SNP) serves as the primary vehicle for independence within the Scottish Parliament. Founded in 1934, the SNP has transformed from a fringe party into Scotland’s dominant political force. They govern Scotland at the Holyrood level and hold the majority of Scottish seats at Westminster. The SNP’s strategy focuses on building electoral majorities and securing a Section 30 order for a legally recognized referendum.
The Scottish Green Party also supports independence and works in coalition with the SNP in government. While smaller than the SNP, the Greens provide crucial parliamentary support and bring different perspectives to the independence debate, particularly regarding environmental and social justice aspects of the case for independence.
Alba Party, founded in 2021, represents a more impatient wing of the independence movement. They argue for immediate action and criticize what they see as the SNP’s gradualist approach. While they have not achieved significant electoral success, they illustrate the internal diversity of opinions within the broader movement.
Unionist Political Parties
The Scottish Conservative Party leads opposition to independence. They campaign to maintain the United Kingdom and argue that Scotland benefits economically and politically from remaining part of the union. Following Brexit, they have emphasized the importance of UK-wide markets and the risks of creating a hard border between Scotland and England.
Scottish Labour historically opposed independence but has shifted position somewhat. While remaining officially unionist, many Labour figures now support a federal UK or greater devolution short of independence. The party’s stance on independence remains complicated, with internal divisions between different factions.
The Scottish Liberal Democrats remain firmly opposed to independence. They advocate for home rule within a federal United Kingdom and have positioned themselves as the most pro-European unionist party, arguing Scotland can rejoin the EU while remaining in the UK.
Civic Organizations: The Movement’s Backbone
Beyond political parties, civic organizations form the backbone of Scotland’s independence movement. These groups operate independently of party politics and focus on building support through research, campaigning, and community organizing.
Believe in Scotland serves as one of the most prominent independence campaign organizations. They coordinate campaigns, produce educational materials, and organize events across Scotland. Their work focuses on persuading undecided voters and providing accessible information about independence.
The Scottish Independence Congress brings together various organizations to develop coordinated strategy. It functions as a forum where different parts of the movement can discuss priorities, resolve disagreements, and plan joint campaigns. This organizational infrastructure helps maintain unity while respecting diversity within the movement.
Local Yes groups operate in communities throughout Scotland. These grassroots organizations handle door-to-door campaigning, community events, and local outreach. They provide the movement with local knowledge and personal connections that national organizations cannot replicate.
Think Tanks and Research Organizations
Several think tanks produce research supporting the independence case. Common Weal develops policy proposals for an independent Scotland, focusing on economic and social policies. Other organizations produce analysis of constitutional questions, economic data, and international comparisons.
This research ecosystem strengthens the movement by providing evidence-based arguments and addressing concerns raised by skeptics. It also helps the movement develop detailed policy positions for issues that would arise during independence negotiations.
The Legal Framework: How Independence Can Actually Happen
Scotland’s independence movement operates within a complex legal and constitutional framework. Understanding this framework is essential for understanding what is possible and what obstacles exist.
The Scotland Act 1998 and Devolution
The Scotland Act 1998 created the Scottish Parliament and established the current devolution settlement. This Act defines which matters are “devolved” to Scotland and which remain “reserved” to Westminster. Crucially, the Act reserves constitutional matters to Westminster, meaning the Scottish Parliament cannot legally organize a binding independence referendum without UK government permission.
Under this framework, Scotland controls education, health, local government, transport, and environmental policy. However, defense, foreign policy, immigration, and constitutional matters remain reserved to the UK Parliament. This division creates the legal reality that Scottish independence requires Westminster cooperation.
Section 30 Orders: The Key to Legal Referendums
A Section 30 order represents the primary legal mechanism for holding a recognized independence referendum. Section 30 of the Scotland Act allows the UK government to temporarily transfer reserved matters to the Scottish Parliament. The 2014 referendum happened because the UK government granted a Section 30 order allowing Holyrood to legislate for that vote.
The UK government has repeatedly refused to grant a Section 30 order for a second referendum. Prime Ministers from David Cameron through Rishi Sunak and now Keir Starmer have maintained that the 2014 referendum settled the question for a generation. This refusal creates the central legal obstacle facing the independence movement.
The 2022 Supreme Court Ruling
In November 2022, the UK Supreme Court delivered a landmark ruling on Scottish independence. The Scottish Government had asked the Court whether the Scottish Parliament could legislate for an independence referendum without a Section 30 order. The Court unanimously ruled that it could not.
The ruling confirmed that any referendum affecting the Union falls within reserved matters, regardless of whether it is legally binding. This decision closed off the possibility of Holyrood holding a referendum without UK government consent. The ruling forced the independence movement to reconsider its strategy and focus on alternative pathways.
The Referendums (Scotland) Act 2020
The Scottish Parliament passed the Referendums (Scotland) Act 2020 to provide a framework for future referendums on devolved matters. This Act establishes rules for franchise, campaign regulation, and the role of the Electoral Commission for any referendums within Holyrood’s competence.
While this Act cannot authorize an independence referendum without a Section 30 order, it demonstrates the Scottish Parliament’s readiness to hold votes on constitutional questions. The Act provides infrastructure that could be used if legal circumstances change.
Alternative Legal Pathways
Scottish independence does not necessarily require a referendum. Theoretically, the UK Parliament could legislate for Scottish independence following negotiations between governments. This pathway would resemble how Ireland achieved independence or how Czechoslovakia peacefully separated into the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Some independence supporters argue that international law provides a right to self-determination that supersedes UK constitutional law. They point to Kosovo’s independence and other cases where territories achieved independence without the consent of their former state. However, these arguments remain legally untested and face significant practical obstacles.
The Pathways to Independence: Three Routes to a New Scotland
Given the legal obstacles, Scotland’s independence movement has developed multiple potential pathways to achieving its goal. Understanding these pathways helps explain the strategic debates within the movement.
Pathway One: The Agreed Referendum Route
The most straightforward pathway involves securing a Section 30 order and holding a recognized referendum. This approach would follow the 2014 model: pro-independence parties win elections, pressure the UK government, and eventually secure agreement for a vote.
This route provides legal clarity and international legitimacy. A recognized referendum result would be difficult for any UK government to ignore. However, this pathway requires the UK government to change its position on granting a Section 30 order, which currently seems unlikely.
Pathway Two: The De Facto Referendum
The de facto referendum concept involves using a scheduled election as a proxy vote on independence. If pro-independence parties win a majority of votes on a manifesto explicitly promising independence negotiations, they could claim a democratic mandate for immediate negotiations.
The SNP proposed treating the 2026 Holyrood elections as a de facto referendum, though internal disagreements have complicated this strategy. Critics argue that elections involve multiple issues and cannot serve as a single-issue referendum. Supporters counter that Westminster cannot indefinitely deny Scottish democracy.
Pathway Three: Constitutional Convention
Some independence supporters advocate convening a Scottish Constitutional Convention to assert Scotland’s right to self-determination. This would involve civic Scotland, including trade unions, churches, businesses, and community organizations, coming together to establish a democratic mandate for independence.
This approach draws inspiration from the 1989 Scottish Constitutional Convention that helped secure devolution. By broadening beyond party politics, a convention could demonstrate that Scottish civil society supports independence, potentially creating political pressure on Westminster.
The Negotiation Process
Whatever pathway leads to independence, the actual process would involve complex negotiations between Scottish and UK governments. These negotiations would address division of assets and liabilities, border arrangements, citizenship questions, international treaty succession, and countless practical details.
Independence supporters anticipate a transition period following a Yes vote, during which Scotland would remain in a form of union with the UK while preparing for full independence. The Scottish Government has published various papers outlining how this transition might work.
How the Movement Works Day-to-Day: Operations and Strategy
Here is where we get to the heart of the question: how does Scotland’s independence movement actually work on a daily basis? This operational dimension is often overlooked but explains how the movement sustains itself between electoral cycles.
Grassroots Organizing and Community Engagement
The movement’s grassroots energy manifests through local Yes groups that operate in communities across Scotland. These groups typically meet monthly, organize canvassing sessions, and maintain visibility through street stalls and community events. Many groups have operated continuously since 2014, keeping the movement alive even when media attention wanes.
Door-to-door canvassing remains a core activity. Volunteers speak with residents, identify supporters and undecided voters, and maintain databases for future campaign efforts. This personal contact builds relationships and trust that digital campaigning cannot replicate.
Digital Campaigning and Social Media
The independence movement has developed sophisticated digital capabilities. Social media campaigns share news, research, and arguments for independence. Independent media outlets like The National and Bella Caledonia provide sympathetic coverage that mainstream media sometimes lacks.
Crowdfunding supports many independence initiatives. Organizations raise money for specific campaigns, events, or research projects. This financial independence from traditional party structures allows the movement to act quickly and take risks that established parties might avoid.
Research and Policy Development
The movement continuously produces research to support the independence case. The Scottish Government publishes papers on various aspects of independence, including currency, EU membership, and defense. Think tanks develop detailed policy proposals for how an independent Scotland would function.
This research serves multiple purposes. It provides activists with answers to common questions. It demonstrates that independence is a thoroughly planned project, not a vague aspiration. And it addresses concerns that might otherwise prevent people from supporting independence.
Building and Maintaining Democratic Mandates
The movement continuously seeks to demonstrate democratic support for independence. Elections provide the most visible mandates. The SNP and Scottish Greens campaign explicitly on independence, meaning votes for these parties represent support for that objective.
Between elections, the movement maintains pressure through demonstrations, petitions, and sustained campaigning. Independence marches regularly attract thousands of participants in cities across Scotland. While these events do not directly change policy, they demonstrate continued public engagement.
The Obstacles: Challenges Facing the Movement
Scotland’s independence movement faces significant obstacles. Understanding these challenges is crucial for understanding why independence has not yet happened and what would need to change.
UK Government Opposition
The fundamental obstacle remains the UK government’s refusal to grant a Section 30 order. Without this consent, the Scottish Parliament cannot legally hold a binding referendum. The Supreme Court ruling confirmed this legal reality.
UK governments of different parties have maintained this position. The Conservatives explicitly oppose independence. Labour, while more sympathetic to Scottish concerns, has also ruled out supporting a referendum. This cross-party Westminster consensus makes the agreed referendum pathway difficult.
Economic Concerns and GERS Figures
Economic questions represent the most significant obstacle in public opinion. Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures show Scotland running a larger deficit relative to GDP than the UK as a whole. Critics argue this demonstrates that independence would require severe austerity.
Independence supporters dispute this interpretation. They argue that GERS shows Scotland within the UK, not as an independent country. They point out that many independent nations successfully manage deficits. Nevertheless, economic concerns persuade many voters to oppose independence.
Currency Questions
The question of currency causes significant concern. In 2014, the Yes campaign proposed keeping the pound sterling in a currency union with the rest of the UK. The UK government rejected this proposal, creating uncertainty about what currency an independent Scotland would use.
Current proposals include using sterling without a formal currency union, eventually creating a Scottish pound, or potentially adopting the euro if Scotland joins the EU. Each option involves trade-offs and risks that worry undecided voters.
EU Membership Complications
While most Scots voted to remain in the EU, the path to rejoining after independence remains complicated. EU membership requires meeting economic criteria, including deficit levels that Scotland currently exceeds under GERS figures. New member states must also commit to eventually adopting the euro.
Some independence supporters argue these requirements would not apply to Scotland given its previous EU membership. Others accept that joining would take time and require difficult economic adjustments. The EU question adds complexity to the independence debate.
Polling Challenges
Support for independence has remained roughly evenly divided since 2014. Polls typically show support between 45% and 55%, with occasional temporary shifts. This narrow division means the movement cannot claim overwhelming popular support.
The movement must persuade undecided voters and former No voters to switch sides. This requires addressing the economic and practical concerns that prevent people from supporting independence. Polling stagnation creates frustration within the movement and fuels strategic disagreements.
Is Independence Still Alive? Current Status and Future Prospects
A common question on forums and in public discussion asks whether Scottish independence is “dead.” The evidence suggests the movement remains very much alive, even if the pathway to achieving its goal remains uncertain.
Current Polling Data
Polling on Scottish independence shows continued public interest in the question. Recent polls typically show support hovering around the 48-52% range, essentially unchanged from the 2014 result. What has changed is that Brexit shifted some former No voters to Yes, while other factors moved some Yes voters to No.
Support for a second referendum generally runs higher than support for independence itself. Many Scots who might vote No in a referendum nevertheless believe the question should be put again, particularly given the Brexit outcome. This dynamic complicates the political situation.
The 2021 Holyrood Mandate
The 2021 Scottish Parliament elections delivered a pro-independence majority. The SNP fell just short of an outright majority but governs with support from the Scottish Greens. Together, these parties represent a majority of MSPs committed to independence.
This majority gives the Scottish Government democratic legitimacy to pursue independence. However, without corresponding UK government cooperation, this mandate alone cannot deliver a referendum. The democratic mandate exists; the legal mechanism does not.
The Significance of the 2026 Election
The next Scottish Parliament elections, scheduled for 2026, may prove decisive. If pro-independence parties win another majority on an explicit independence platform, pressure on Westminster will increase. Some within the movement argue this election should serve as a de facto referendum.
However, if unionist parties perform well or the pro-independence majority is lost, the movement would face significant setbacks. The 2026 elections will likely determine whether the current phase of the independence campaign continues or whether new strategies emerge.
Why the Movement Persists
Scotland’s independence movement persists because it is built into Scottish political structures. The Scottish Parliament provides a permanent platform. The SNP’s electoral dominance ensures independence remains on the political agenda. And Brexit created new grievances that fuel the movement.
The movement also persists because it represents a genuine political aspiration for many Scots. Independence is not simply an SNP policy but a movement supported by civic organizations, community groups, and individual activists. This distributed support makes the movement resilient to setbacks.
How You Can Participate: Getting Involved in the Movement
For those interested in participating in Scotland’s independence movement, numerous pathways exist. Whether you want to contribute time, money, or simply stay informed, opportunities are available.
Political Party Membership
Joining the SNP, Scottish Greens, or Alba Party provides the most direct involvement. Members can vote in leadership elections, attend branch meetings, and participate in policy development. Party membership also provides access to events, campaign materials, and community networks.
Each party offers different experiences. The SNP provides the broadest organization and greatest influence given its electoral dominance. The Greens offer a focus on environmental and social justice dimensions of independence. Alba represents a more activist-oriented approach for those impatient with gradual progress.
Civic Organization Involvement
For those preferring to remain outside party politics, civic organizations offer excellent opportunities. Believe in Scotland welcomes volunteers for campaigning and events. The Scottish Independence Congress brings together organizations for strategic coordination.
Local Yes groups operate throughout Scotland and typically welcome new participants. These groups provide community-level involvement and direct contact with fellow independence supporters. Many maintain active social media presences where interested people can learn about activities.
Campaign Volunteering
During election campaigns, volunteering opportunities expand significantly. Campaigns need canvassers to speak with voters, leafletters to distribute materials, and office volunteers to handle administrative tasks. Even small time commitments make meaningful contributions.
Digital volunteering has also grown. Social media campaigns need content creators, graphic designers, and people to share materials. Research and writing skills are valuable for producing blogs, articles, and educational content.
Staying Informed
Even without active participation, staying informed supports the movement. Following independence-supporting media, reading research publications, and understanding the arguments helps you engage in discussions with friends and family. An informed population is essential for any democratic movement.
The Scottish Government publishes papers on various independence topics. Think tanks like Common Weal produce accessible research. Newsletters from organizations like Believe in Scotland provide regular updates. These resources help supporters understand the ever-evolving situation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happens if Scotland gets independence?
If Scotland voted for independence, a transition period would follow during which Scotland and the UK would negotiate the terms of separation. This would include division of assets and liabilities, border arrangements, citizenship rights, and international treaty obligations. Scotland would establish its own institutions for defense, foreign policy, and other reserved matters while remaining economically integrated with the UK during transition. Eventually, Scotland would become a fully sovereign state with the option to apply for EU membership.
Is there a strong independence movement in Scotland?
Yes, the independence movement remains strong and well-organized. Pro-independence parties have won majorities in Scottish Parliament elections, and support for independence typically polls between 45-55%. The movement operates through political parties, civic organizations like Believe in Scotland, grassroots Yes groups, and extensive online networks. While the 2014 referendum delivered a No vote, the movement has persisted and remains a central feature of Scottish politics.
Can Scotland hold another independence referendum?
Legally, the Scottish Parliament cannot hold a binding independence referendum without permission from the UK government through a Section 30 order. The 2022 Supreme Court ruling confirmed this. The UK government has consistently refused to grant such permission. However, Scotland could potentially hold an advisory referendum, use a regular election as a de facto referendum, or pursue independence through negotiations following a demonstrated democratic mandate. These alternative routes face their own legal and political obstacles.
What is a Section 30 order?
A Section 30 order is a legal mechanism under the Scotland Act 1998 that allows the UK government to temporarily transfer reserved matters to the Scottish Parliament. This is how the 2014 independence referendum was legally authorized. Without a Section 30 order, the Scottish Parliament lacks the legal competence to legislate for an independence referendum. The UK government has the sole discretion to grant or refuse such orders, creating the current impasse in the independence process.
How is Scottish independence different from Brexit?
Scottish independence differs from Brexit in several crucial ways. Independence would follow a established constitutional framework with clear precedents for peaceful separation. Scotland would seek to maintain or restore membership in the European Union, not leave it. The Scottish Government has published extensive plans for the transition, unlike the Brexit referendum which lacked detailed planning. Additionally, Scotland has its own parliament and institutions already in place, providing infrastructure that did not exist for Brexit. However, both involve complex negotiations about trade, borders, and institutional relationships.
What would happen to the NHS after independence?
The NHS in Scotland is already devolved to the Scottish Parliament, so independence would not change its basic operation. Scotland would continue running its own health service as it does now. Independence would give Scotland full control over health policy, funding decisions, and pharmaceutical procurement. Proponents argue this would allow Scotland to improve the NHS by removing constraints from Westminster funding decisions. Critics worry about potential disruption during the transition period and uncertainty about future funding arrangements.
Would Scotland keep the pound after independence?
Scotland would likely continue using the pound sterling initially, either through a formal currency union or informally. The Scottish Government has proposed transitioning to a separate Scottish pound when economic conditions allow. Some argue Scotland could eventually join the euro if it becomes an EU member, though this would require meeting EU criteria and would not happen immediately. Currency policy represents one of the most debated aspects of the independence proposal, with different options carrying different economic implications.
Conclusion: Understanding Scotland’s Democratic Journey
Scotland’s independence movement operates through a complex network of political parties, civic organizations, and grassroots activists all working toward the goal of Scottish sovereignty. Understanding how this movement works reveals a sophisticated campaign that has sustained itself through electoral defeats, legal setbacks, and decades of political struggle.
The movement faces significant obstacles. UK government opposition, economic concerns, currency questions, and the 2022 Supreme Court ruling all complicate the path to independence. Yet the movement persists because it represents a genuine democratic aspiration supported by millions of Scots and institutionalized through the Scottish Parliament.
Whether you support independence or not, understanding how Scotland’s independence movement works matters for anyone interested in UK politics, constitutional questions, or the right of peoples to self-determination. The movement demonstrates both the possibilities and limitations of democratic change within existing constitutional frameworks. As the 2026 Scottish elections approach, the movement’s strategies and prospects will continue evolving, shaping the future of the United Kingdom for years to come.